Revisiting state vs. federal graduation rates
Every few years, I like to draw attention to the shocking difference between what the federal government thinks a student is, and what the State of Michigan knows about students. It’s time for one of those posts again. The state’s Center for Education Performance and Information (CEPI) recently released their updated student success rates for postsecondary institutions, similar to graduation rates, but not called that because community colleges get credited with a “success” for a student transferring to a four-year institution. For the four-year sector, they are functionally graduation rates.
I’ve written before about why these state data are much more important than the federal figures, so this will be a relatively brief post. In short, traditional graduation rates that the federal government calculates consist only of first-time, full-time students, and the CEPI success rates are adjusted for part-time students and those who transfer institutions, as well as the students who enroll in the four northern-most public universities for a certificate or associate degree. Credit where it’s due, the feds are trying to roll out a similar measure, but it’s been slow going and still isn’t reported every year. So what do the data look like for this year’s release of six-year graduation rates?
Michigan Public University Graduation Rates: Federal vs. State of Michigan
|
Federal - IPEDS |
State - CEPI |
|
Diff. |
|
|
Central Michigan University |
61.7% |
77.3% |
15.6% |
|
|
Eastern Michigan University |
48.2% |
64.2% |
16.0% |
|
|
Ferris State University |
47.7% |
69.3% |
21.6% |
|
|
Grand Valley State University |
67.1% |
79.9% |
12.8% |
|
|
Lake Superior State University |
52.4% |
66.2% |
|
13.8% |
|
Michigan State University |
82.1% |
90.5% |
8.4% |
|
|
Michigan Technological University |
69.1% |
82.0% |
12.9% |
|
|
Northern Michigan University |
49.4% |
69.1% |
19.7% |
|
|
Oakland University |
56.1% |
73.5% |
17.4% |
|
|
Saginaw Valley State University |
42.5% |
61.7% |
|
19.2% |
|
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor |
93.7% |
95.7% |
2.0% |
|
|
University of Michigan-Dearborn |
56.3% |
73.3% |
17.0% |
|
|
University of Michigan-Flint |
35.6% |
59.7% |
24.1% |
|
|
Wayne State University |
55.8% |
68.5% |
12.7% |
|
|
Western Michigan University |
56.3% |
74.3% |
18.0% |
|
|
Aggregate: |
66.8% |
77.0% |
10.2% |
|
|
Average: |
58.2% |
73.7% |
15.4% |
The aggregate figure is comparing the entire sector’s combined enrollment between the two reports, and the average figure is comparing the percentage points of difference between each institution’s CEPI and IPEDS numbers. In other words, I like to think of this as saying federal data undercounts the number of overall graduates by 10%, but undercounts the average institutional success rate by 15%. The aggregate focuses on students, and the average on institutions. Also note that these are two different entering cohorts because IPEDS is lagged by a year – IPEDS uses a Fall 2015 cohort and CEPI uses Fall 2016.
But one thing that I want to highlight this year is the progress that institutions have made since the first CEPI report came out many years ago. Below is the CEPI six-year success rate over time for the fifteen public universities:
Increase in Michigan Public University Graduation Rates, 2015—2022
|
Fall 2016 cohort |
Fall 2009 cohort |
Diff. |
||
|
Central Michigan University |
77.3% |
67.8% |
9.5% |
|
|
Eastern Michigan University |
64.2% |
53.0% |
11.2% |
|
|
Ferris State University |
69.3% |
64.6% |
4.7% |
|
|
Grand Valley State University |
79.9% |
76.7% |
3.2% |
|
|
Lake Superior State University |
66.2% |
56.9% |
9.3% |
|
|
Michigan State University |
90.5% |
86.1% |
4.4% |
|
|
Michigan Technological University |
82.0% |
80.5% |
1.5% |
|
|
Northern Michigan University |
69.1% |
58.0% |
11.1% |
|
|
Oakland University |
73.5% |
55.5% |
18.0% |
|
|
Saginaw Valley State University |
61.7% |
53.1% |
8.6% |
|
|
University of Michigan-Ann Arbor |
95.7% |
91.5% |
4.2% |
|
|
University of Michigan-Dearborn |
73.3% |
65.9% |
7.4% |
|
|
University of Michigan-Flint |
59.7% |
54.6% |
5.1% |
|
|
Wayne State University |
68.5% |
51.3% |
17.2% |
|
|
Western Michigan University |
74.3% |
74.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Aggregate: |
77.0% |
|
70.5% |
6.5% |
|
Average: |
73.7% |
|
66.0% |
7.7% |
The public universities of Michigan have, on average, increased their six-year graduation rate by around 7% since the Fall 2009 cohort, no matter how you compare the rates. Some institutions, obviously, by much more than that. Make no mistake, though, efforts are not done, and continued improvement remains the goal at all the state universities. Little by little, Michigan’s public universities continue to advance in student success.
Mia Murphy is the Chief Policy Officer at the Michigan Association of State Universities.